Rising food prices, eroded household incomes, and limited agricultural labour opportunities are expected to deepen food insecurity across Malawi, particularly in the Southern and Central regions.
A new report by the Africa Food Trade and Resilience Initiative warns that the looming El Niño weather phenomenon will further exacerbate the crisis.
The Centre for Social Concern (CfSC) has cautioned that the findings should not be dismissed as routine seasonal warnings, stressing that they highlight a deeper structural problem: households are struggling not because food is unavailable, but because they lack the income to afford it.
El Niño is forecast to delay rainfall, reduce precipitation, and trigger dry spells.
Already, the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee estimates that 2.6 million people, 14 percent of the population, will face food insecurity during the 2026/27 consumption period.
“While much of the remaining southern and central regions are expected to remain stressed, many households will continue struggling to meet essential non-food needs,” reads the report in part.
“The anticipated persistence of strong El Nino conditions is also likely to result in below-average and poorly distributed rainfall, reducing agricultural labour demand, crop production, pasture conditions and water availability, especially in the southern areas.”
At the same time, the report says rising maize prices, especially in August, continue to constrain food market access for market-dependent households.
The report also cites the sharp decline in tobacco revenues, saying it has worsened the situation, adding it will continue to affect forex shortages and limit importation of essential commodities, including fuel, medicines and agricultural inputs.
The country earned about K456 billion (about $260.8 million) from tobacco sales from the 2026 season, which officially closed on September 10 amid farmers complaints in regards to poor prices.
Last season, the green gold, touted as the main forex earner contributing 15 percent to Malawi’s economy, generated K949 billion (about $542 million).
And despite favourable production prospects, maize, which is Malawi’s staple food, recorded an increase, which the report attributes to supply tightness.
This is in contrast with direct neighbouring countries where the maize prices reportedly declined in August.
Reads the report: “The largest month-on-month increase in maize prices was observed in Malawi (+16 percent), followed by Niger (+14 percent), Ghana (+13 percent), Ethiopia (+7 Percent) and Nigeria (+7 percent).
“Moderate increases were also recorded in Burkina Faso (4 percent), Uganda (+3 percent) and Mali (+1 percent). In contrast, maize prices declined most sharply in Zambia (-30 percent) followed by Kenya (-10 percent), Togo (-7 percent), Tanzania (-4 percent), Rwanda (-4 percent) and Mozambique (-4 percent). Prices remained unchanged in South Sudan and Zimbabwe.”
The Malawi government allocated K100 billion to the National Food Reserve Agency for maize purchases while State produce trader Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation received K60 billion.
The allocations were part of the government’s efforts to stabilise prices, and according to the Department of Disaster Management Affairs, the 2026/27 Lean Season Food Insecurity Response Plan is expected to roll out next month.
Under the response plan, according to Dodma commissioner Wilson Moleni, food insecure households will be provided with assistance for up to four months.
In an interview on Friday, CfSC economic governance officer Agness Nyirongo said the distinction between food availability and food prices is important, observing that a household can live in a community where maize is available in the markets but still go hungry if the family cannot afford to buy it.
“For poor households, the most immediate threat is, therefore, the gap between food prices and household incomes,” she said. “When food prices rise faster than wages and other sources of household income, families are forced to make difficult choices.”
She added: “They may reduce the number of meals they eat, reduce portion sizes, buy cheaper and less nutritious foods, withdraw children from school, sell livestock or farm equipment or borrow money simply to meet basic food needs.”
But while praising efforts by donor partners such as the World Food Programme and Japan in cushioning poor households, Nyirongo said the scale of the challenge means Malawi cannot rely on humanitarian assistance alone.
She said: “The question is not whether the lean season support is necessary. It clearly is. The more important question is whether it is sufficient to address a food security problem whose causes extend beyond the lean season.
“If a household receives food assistance for several months but returns to the same situation of low income, limited employment, expensive food and inadequate agricultural productivity after the programme ends, the household remains vulnerable to the next shock.”
In a separate interview, consumer rights activist John Kapito said the report findings warrant proper planning.
“Such signals are serious enough to make the leadership at all levels of government to start making serious plans to avoid the catastrophes that will come with these hunger challenges that Malawians will be faced with,” he said.
Kapito said most Malawians’ purchasing power have been eroded by high taxes and worsened by volatile economic challenges, citing unstable forex supply and low poor wages.
He said: “Government needs to put up a strong committee to be responsible and start putting in place meaningful strategies to deal with these challenges. Otherwise, it should not be surprising to many poor households when these food challenges will start biting.”
